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Offline stubbs

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60 points for safety???
« on: February 17, 2020, 10:56:00 AM »
could this be the season the side finishing 3rd bottom goes down with 60 points. Durham are currently in that dreaded position with 43 points, but are currently one of the form sides, along with Pock, Kendal and Malton and Norton. Morley, Scarborough, B+B and Percy Park are on the slide (form from 7/12) with 13,14,19 and 17 points respectively. It is a great competitive league though, and as the show Pony says in another post, had Scarborough scored during the 15 minutes of pressure they had at the end of the 1st half at York it could have been a different game. 

Offline The Show Pony

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Re: 60 points for safety???
« Reply #1 on: February 17, 2020, 11:27:00 AM »
could this be the season the side finishing 3rd bottom goes down with 60 points. Durham are currently in that dreaded position with 43 points, but are currently one of the form sides, along with Pock, Kendal and Malton and Norton. Morley, Scarborough, B+B and Percy Park are on the slide (form from 7/12) with 13,14,19 and 17 points respectively. It is a great competitive league though, and as the show Pony says in another post, had Scarborough scored during the 15 minutes of pressure they had at the end of the 1st half at York it could have been a different game.

I don't think you will be far off looking at the upcoming fixtures! I think Durham are too good to go down so I worry for the teams around them! Just hope Pock have enough to go up! Their super signing of 'All Action' Huss Akdag may be the difference!

Offline Dark Arts Advocate

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Re: 60 points for safety???
« Reply #2 on: February 17, 2020, 02:59:34 PM »
I think it is fair to surmise that WH have too much to do to escape the drop.

So third relegation place is likely to be from DC, PP, Pock, BB or Malt.

Pock are my favorites to survive, but I feel next Saturday's game V DC at Percy Road is a must win for them as it is for DC.
Pock I think will win 4 of their remaining games which should be enough and given, with exception of a couple, such as Cleck and Moortown away, all are very winnable!

Durham have got three tough fixtures in a row starting at Pock, then at Scarbs and a local derby at home v PP. I can see them winning 3 or 4 of their remaining games.

PP are the most vulnerable I suspect with a hard set of fixtures on the run in. Not sure how many they might win but they have got a proper scrap on their hands.

M and N are in a similar position to PP with some very difficult (on paper at least) games to come. I do fancy they will win at least the last 2 games of the season, but I am sure they wouldn't want to rely on that!

B and B have been indifferent recently and they too have a run in where every game is going to be close and competitive. they probably need 3 from 7 to be safe!

and then there is Scarborough who since the 9th November 2019 have won only two games, both at home and both against the bottom two sides in the league.
They are in almost exactly the same position as York last season, desperate for injured players to return and in need of a couple of wins. No gimmes in their remaining fixtures, so on present form not sure where the couple of wins they require, will come from?

   
« Last Edit: February 17, 2020, 03:01:48 PM by Dark Arts Advocate »
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Offline backrowbandit

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Re: 60 points for safety???
« Reply #3 on: February 17, 2020, 07:45:20 PM »
It's certainly true that it's likely this season's 3rd relegation spot will go to a team with the highest number of points in recent years.

If you look back on my posts through the season I frequently said our objective (or my objective anyway) was for 50 points and safety. I said this on a few occasions when we were top of the league for several weeks. I knew what was coming and I wasn't being facetious.

Where I was wrong is that 50 points won't be enough this year. However Scarborough won't be going down, we know what we need to do. But I'm under no illusion that we are in a fight along with 5 or 6 other sides.

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Offline avinastella

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Re: 60 points for safety???
« Reply #4 on: February 17, 2020, 09:08:17 PM »
Bonus points are likely to be crucial. Durham and Bees not got enough.
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Offline backrowbandit

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Re: 60 points for safety???
« Reply #5 on: February 18, 2020, 07:30:23 AM »
Over the last 10 years the 3rd relegated spot when down with the following points total:
54
48
50
32
50
50
35
47
51
21

So it's fair to say that 60 points should guarantee absolute safety and 55 is likely to lead to safety.

Lots of clubs still in the mix....
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Offline backrowbandit

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Re: 60 points for safety???
« Reply #6 on: February 18, 2020, 07:31:46 AM »
Only 4 teams safe from relegation.
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Offline stubbs

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Re: 60 points for safety???
« Reply #7 on: February 18, 2020, 11:11:38 AM »
Scarborough, B+B and PP have completed their fixtures against YMCA and West Hartlepool,  Durham and Morley have to play both, whilst Kendal, Pock and M+N have 1 fixture against them.  That in theory assuming wins against both should ensure Morleys safety, but could put Durham into the 50's points wise together with Pock and M+N which will lead to very 'cut throat' games when teams in 6th to 12th meet each other. Form wise since 7/12 Morley 13pts,  Scarb 14pts, rest 17+ to Kendal on 23.

Offline maltyjruggers

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Re: 60 points for safety???
« Reply #8 on: February 18, 2020, 12:56:27 PM »
Throw in home games still to play also against away games. We (Bees) have not won away since Scarborough in December but have grinded out crucial home wins. Percy Park & Durham (other than fixtures against the bottom 2) also seem to struggle picking up points on the road this season.
« Last Edit: February 18, 2020, 12:58:10 PM by maltyjruggers »

Offline Ubique

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Re: 60 points for safety???
« Reply #9 on: February 18, 2020, 06:00:08 PM »
Apart from York, don’t think anybody else has more than 4 away wins. Bottom two or three with no away wins, M+N with one and a couple of teams with 2. Teams that start picking up away points might find it easier to stay out of a relegation place.

Offline backrowbandit

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Re: 60 points for safety???
« Reply #10 on: February 23, 2020, 08:43:03 PM »
Bloody tight at the bottom now!
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Offline stubbs

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Re: 60 points for safety???
« Reply #11 on: February 24, 2020, 12:23:02 PM »
Scarborough with 4 home games and players returning should be too strong for Durham and Malton at home (2 away games won between them) and probably B and B away. Durham have to visit bottom two and on recent form (4 wins out of last 5) should win both. PP and Kendal 4 at home should win 2 at least. Pock have to beat B+B and YM at home and get at least 2 bonus points away. M+N  have to beat either YM or B+B away and win 1 of 3 at home. B+B have 5 of the clubs between 6th and 12th to play but only narrowly beat DC and WH at home recently, so it is their own hands if they can find some better form. 

Offline Dark Arts Advocate

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Re: 60 points for safety???
« Reply #12 on: February 25, 2020, 07:29:38 PM »
With Pock shooting themselves in the foot v DC and M and N putting in what appeared to be (by the result) a good performance at Morley, there is even more riding on the local derby at the Gannock this weekend!
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Offline The Show Pony

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Re: 60 points for safety???
« Reply #13 on: February 26, 2020, 08:15:58 AM »
Scarborough, B+B and PP have completed their fixtures against YMCA and West Hartlepool,  Durham and Morley have to play both, whilst Kendal, Pock and M+N have 1 fixture against them.  That in theory assuming wins against both should ensure Morleys safety, but could put Durham into the 50's points wise together with Pock and M+N which will lead to very 'cut throat' games when teams in 6th to 12th meet each other. Form wise since 7/12 Morley 13pts,  Scarb 14pts, rest 17+ to Kendal on 23.

West Hartlepool are doing well Stubbsy! Most teams will struggle to beat them!

Offline stubbs

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Re: 60 points for safety???
« Reply #14 on: February 26, 2020, 11:40:02 AM »
Pony,

They have won 4 games all at home and lost recently to 3rd bottom,the Cleck win was in gale force winds, and I do accept they are probably better than their league position suggests but morale must be absolutely rock bottom. PP will be a hard game for York on Saturday ((no easy games), it will depend on whether Driff turn up at Cleck, and Kendal have won 4 away games, 3 of which were at Scar, Pock and M+N so if they turn up Moortown won't have it all their own way and Pock now need to beat M+N.